Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents

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arXiv:2607.03015v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting future events has attracted growing attention as a testbed for general-purpose AI. A natural way to ground this evaluation is let the models trade in the prediction markets. Trading, however, requires more than forecasting. Moreover, recent benchmarks report a substantial gap between calibrated probability scores and the trading results. We propose Raven-Agent, to the best of our knowledge, the first autonomous trading agent for predic