A Threshold Exceedance Framework for CBRN Uplift Evaluation in Frontier Language Models

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arXiv:2607.12200v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As frontier language models advance, policymakers and model developers need methods for assessing whether model access materially increases a non-expert actor's ability to plan high-consequence Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear (CBRN) misuse relative to public tools alone. Existing CBRN evaluations differ in non-expert definitions, threat scope, baselines, scoring rubrics, and decision rules, making results difficult to compare across