Beyond Tracking or Shortcut: Composition-Bounded Predictive States in Poker Autoregressive Models

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arXiv:2607.19369v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Hidden-state probes often recover latent labels in imperfect-information sequence models, but this alone does not establish that a model maintains a posterior belief distribution over hidden states. This paper studies this ambiguity in a no-range Limit Hold'em autoregressive model trained only on action and value targets, not on an opponent's hand or range. Opponent-range probes are positive after action/value controls in two of three seeds, and t