Microsoft Research Publishes AI Weather Forecasting Study in Nature

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A Microsoft Research-led team published a study in Nature on October 14, 2026, introducing probabilistic bias correction (PBC), a machine learning framework the authors report improves weather forecasts two to six weeks ahead, alongside an open-source release of the code. The study states that although modern dynamical and AI systems deliver accurate forecasts out to roughly two weeks, skill drops precipitously at subseasonal timescales of two to six weeks ahead because of compounding errors…